Chow maintains lead in a sea of 102 candidates for mayor of Toronto

Chow maintains lead in a sea of 102 candidates for mayor of Toronto

OLIVIA CHOW

Mainstreet Research and Ethnic Press Council polls:

June 5, 2023

By Veronica C. Silva

The Philippine Reporter

Former NDP member of parliament (MP) Olivia Chow maintains her lead as the top mayoral candidate in the upcoming Toronto by-election, according to latest polls.

The latest June 2 release of Mainstreet Research puts Chow at the top of preferred mayor in a poll of 1,100 qualified voters surveyed by phone. Thirty-two per cent said they would vote for Chow if election had been held on survey dates May 30 to May 31. Former city councillor Ana Bailao is a second favourite with 16%, followed by former police chief Mark Saunders with 12% behind her. City councillor Josh Matlow is a fourth favourite with 10%. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level.

Chow has been consistently on top in the run up to the by-election to be held on June 26 due to mayor John Tory officially stepping down in February after reports of an extramarital affair.

JOSH MATLOW

A poll released by The Forum Research on May 28 said Chow retains her lead with 34% among decided and leaning voters. The poll was conducted among 1,007 Toronto residents on May 26. Saunders and Matlow are the next favoured candidates with 14% and 12%, respectively. The poll was considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.

The two polls are almost consistent with a poll commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) of which The Philippine Reporter is a member.

Undertaken by Liaison Strategies, the poll conducted on May 26 to 27, 2023 revealed that 30% of eligible voters would pick Chow if election was held on the dates of the poll. The opponents of the former Toronto City councillor who were next most preferred were Saunders and former member of provincial parliament (MPP) Mitzi Hunter who each got 14% of the votes. Out of 1,305 voters surveyed, 8% will vote for someone else. The poll has margin of error of ± 2.71 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for the total.

Analysts

MARK SAUNDERS

An analyst interviewed by The Philippine Reporter said the Filipino diaspora can learn from the upcoming election, both from the perspective of an aspiring politician and an eligible voter.

Name recognition is important, said Paul Saguil, co-founder of Filipino Canadian Political Association, a group that is encouraging members of the Filipino community to be active in politics, including by running for elective positions so that the diaspora will be more represented in policymaking.

With more than 100 candidates running in the by-election, this should not discourage kababayans (compatriots) from testing the political waters, he said.

“It is important to build a long record, to do more work [in public service],” he added, if people want to run for public office. “For potential candidates, consider the lay of the land at this time … There is enough time to build a team of support, … to grow a base of support.”

MITZI HUNTER

Grant Gonzales, also a co-founder of the Filipino Canadian Political Association, told The Philippine Reporter, that the challenge for candidates in municipal elections is “gaining name recognition and raising their profile.”

“It will be difficult for the Filipino candidates to garner media attention while competing with higher profile candidates, including current and former councillors, a former MPP, and a former police chief,” he added.

Nevertheless, the fact that 102 candidates have joined the race is a celebration for civic engagement, said Gonzales, as this shows that “people care about our city.”

Saguil added that aside from running for a political seat, the Filipino community should be active in the election process by learning more about the candidates and the issues, participating or listening in on debates, hosting community forums, fund raising, writing op-eds, and more.

Important election

PAUL SAGUIL

Saguil said the June 26 is an important election that will shape the city in the next 10 to 15 years. There are critical issues to be decided, he added, including, the housing crisis, public safety, transit, and financial sustainability.

Gonzales is of the same thinking, saying: “The new mayor will have significant power to shape the future of the City of Toronto, and address our most pressing issues … This is a critical election, and I encourage all Filipinos to learn about all the candidates and come out to vote,” said Gonzales.

Issues

These were some of the same issues raised by Torontonians surveyed.

Some issues covered in the Mainstreet poll were increasing the number of bike lanes, budget, and the Gardiner Expressway, which has been undergoing a facelift that is costing Torontonians billions of dollars and traffic congestion.

In the Forum Research poll, the important issues raised were housing affordability, and the cost of living and inflation.

Advanced voting is ongoing – from June 8 to June 13.