Canada’s population growth essentially stops due to COVID-19

Canada’s population growth essentially stops due to COVID-19

Canada’s population estimates, third
quarter 2020
(Released: 2020-12-17)
• 38,008,000 –
October 1, 2020
• 0.0%
(quarterly change)

Canada’s population was estimated at 38,008,005 on October 1, up 2,767 (+0.0%) from July 1, 2020. This was the lowest quarterly growth since at least January 1, 1946 (the point at which comparable national data become available).

In six provinces and two territories, the population decreased for the first time since at least the third quarter of 1951 (the point at which comparable provincial data become available). The largest declines (by number) were in British Columbia (down 1,861 people, or -0.0%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (down 1,105 people, or -0.2%).

The population rose slightly in Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Manitoba, Alberta and Yukon, with the largest increase (by number) in Alberta (up 6,236 people, or +0.1%).

Deaths from COVID-19 had a small impact on population growth in the third quarter. Out of 69,114 total deaths from July to September, 706 were from COVID-19 (according to the Public Health Agency of Canada), down from 8,495 in the second quarter. The largest demographic impact on the total population came from losses in international migration (-27,143).

Canada’s efforts to contain COVID-19 continue to dampen population growth during the third quarter

In March, Canada implemented restrictions on international travel to curb the spread of COVID-19. As the majority of population growth in Canada typically comes from international migration, this has had a profound impact on the country’s population growth in 2020.

Total international migration was negative for only the second time in any quarter since the third quarter of 1971 (the point at which comparable records for the components of population growth become available). Canada welcomed 40,069 immigrants in the third quarter of 2020 (61.4% fewer than in the third quarter of 2019), but reported a record net loss of almost 66,000 non-permanent residents. International students usually come to Canada in large numbers in the third quarter of the year, but many were not able to do so in 2020 because of the border restrictions.

As a result, all of Canada’s growth in the third quarter came from natural increase (+29,910), or the difference between births (99,024) and deaths (69,114).

Fewer moves between provinces and territories

During the third quarter, 65,795 people moved to another province or territory, down 21.0% year over year and the fewest number of migrants in a third quarter since comparable record keeping began (third quarter of 1971).

British Columbia had the highest net gain from interprovincial migration in the third quarter (+4,742 people), while Nova Scotia’s net gain (+1,471) was the highest the province has seen since the third quarter of 1984. However, the gains in these two provinces due to interprovincial migration were not enough to offset losses in international migration, so their populations decreased.

Saskatchewan (-2,774) and Manitoba (-1,780) lost the most people through interprovincial migration. Saskatchewan has had net interprovincial migration losses since the third quarter of 2013, while Manitoba has had net losses to other provinces and territories since the second quarter of 2004.

(Source: The Daily, Statistics Canada)