Grim and bright scenarios for the PH May 9 presidential elections (Or, Philippine reality politics)

Grim and bright scenarios for the PH May 9 presidential elections (Or, Philippine reality politics)

As the political situation in the Philippines is intensely building up to an explosive climax that is the May 9, 2022 elections, in everyone’s mind are a few questions: What will be the result of the voting exercise? More specifically, who will win the presidential election? Will there be massive cheating?

I can see a few scenarios emerging, from the worst to the best that will be a decisive turning point in the way power is wielded by a new president.

Some pundits have suggested that the 2022 elections will be as existential as the 1986 snap elections that led to the overthrow of the Marcos dictatorship. What happens on May 9 and the ensuing response of political forces and the masses will decide whether the dark regime started by Duterte will further deteriorate and morph into a reincarnation of a Marcos Senior type of dictatorship or the turn of events will bring a so-called return to normalcy in terms of a more tolerable power struggle between and among political dynasties.

1. The optimistic scenario. Vice President Leni Robredo wins either with a landslide or with a convincing margin despite attempts by her political enemies to subvert her victory with massive election fraud using vote buying, manipulating results with the use of rigged voting machines, switching of ballots and falsifying vote counts. She also gains a big majority in both Houses of Congress (as the more opportunistic politicians from the Duterte-Marcos camp convert into Robredo turncoats). What will follow is a new era reminiscent of the pre-martial law years when repression and persecution of political enemies were not so intense and there were more tolerable political maneuverings and coups among oligarchs. But still, there’s no denying that the political elites representing their own economic interests and those of their foreign sponsors and masters will still dominate the system.

2. The pessimistic scenario. Former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. wins amid reports of rampant election cheating, violent election incidents, use of false vote counts and the manipulation of  automated voting machines. The Comelec, under the full control of President Duterte, officially comes up with unbelievable voting results favoring Marcos Jr. totally not reflecting the mammoth rallies of VP Leni all over the country in the last few weeks before the voting. Political, civil society, professional, labor, church, farmers groups and the unorganized masses protest but their voices are suppressed and an emergency situation is declared by Duterte to pacify the protests. Arrests may be made by the military of the leaders for “attempts at destabilization”. Marcos Jr. is officially declared the winner and is proclaimed the new president despite the numerous legal challenges that may reach the Supreme Court which is also dominated by Duterte appointees.

3. The possible replication of the 1986 People Power scenario. The elephant in the room that some presidential bets call “destabilization” and they attribute talk of its possibility to the Robredo camp, as if the EDSA 1 Uprising did not benefit the country with the overthrow of a corrupt and power-greedy dictatorship. Didn’t the 1986 uprising, branded bloodless or non-violent, bring back democratic rights, freedoms, electoral processes, a democratic system, though still dominated by the elite, a more preferable system than an autocratic dictatorship that wielded absolute power and knew no bounds in obliterating any form of opposition? If something like this happens as a result of evil attempts to frustrate the will of the people to effect change by means of an election, we hope it will be done quickly as in 1986 and not result in a bloody civil war. It is possible given the unseen-before, massive, passionate and unprecedented pro-Leni rallies replicated in major cities and far-flung areas of the country. People, notwithstanding the heat, the huge crowds, rain or shine, stood for more than 10 hours to show their aspirations and longing for a decent regime responsive to their ever-worsening poverty and hunger, their joblessness and desperation. The very high sense of community, volunteerism and willingness to sacrifice, the courage to show their outrage against the abuses of the powerful and their hope for a better future, all these point to a phenomenal turn of events that is not impossible to happen.

There was EDSA 1 that brought down the Marcos dictatorship and there was EDSA 2 that took down the corrupt Estrada presidency. But what followed were regimes that continued the ways of the old ones or worse, they became more corrupt than their predecessors. It turned out to be a change of faces not a change of systems that radically transformed the old ones. If ever there would be an EDSA 3, we hope it will not be an almost complete replica of the first two in terms of successive regimes. Otherwise, the country and its people will be back to square one, although maybe at a higher level. In which case, we hope we would have learned big lessons that will prepare us for another similar turning point in our history.

About scenario number 2, people may ask why assume that Marcos Jr. cannot win honestly without resorting to cheating? According to surveys widely considered credible, he has enjoyed a wide margin for a long time over the second placer Robredo. The last Pulse Asia survey, conducted March 17 to 21, 2022, saw him slide by 4 points while Robredo gained 9 points: Marcos Jr. 56 as against Robredo 24. My response to that: The rising tide of Robredo’s massive rallies is not reflected in the surveys. The passion, the organic volunteerism, the spontaneous and overwhelming enthusiasm, the spirit of sharing and sacrifice, the frustration over an ugly and vindictive exercise of power by those who rule, all these cannot be quantified in surveys that, although considered scientific and following certain protocols, are not audited (some parts are subcontracted) and the interviews are conducted without a third party as in actual election counts. Besides, despite the success of social media manipulation that spins false narratives, the Marcos regime is still the most hated and most proven-to-be (as in documented) corrupt and repressive since the birth of the republic in 1946. In short, Marcos Junior cannot win as president in an honest election on May 9, 2022.

But as they say, time will tell. Let us wait for May 9 and the ensuing events. We’ll see which of the above or similar scenarios will take shape and actually happen.

Still, twists and unexpected turns cannot be discounted should scenario number 2 (Marcos Jr. becomes the president) become a reality. Besides, the scheduled-to-be outgoing Duterte regime still has aces up its sleeve. A seamless continuation of Duterte Regime 1 into a Duterte Regime 2 can be achieved with the victory of presidential daughter Sara Duterte as vice president and Marcos Jr. as president. Remember both the Comelec and the Supreme Court are packed with Duterte appointees and both Houses of Congress can again be dominated by Duterte loyalists. It’s possible those institutions can be used to catapult the presidential daughter into becoming the president via the disqualification cases of Marcos Jr., or his impeachment. This may be called a wild sequel of scenario number 2. But remember, politics is the art of the possible and the current president has too much at stake in terms of being jailed after losing his presidential immunity from being sued in court for possible human rights violations (extrajudicial killings) and plunder. And one can only imagine the alleged immense wealth he has accumulated, given the scale of scandals under his regime (Pharmally, Malampaya, etc.) and his close association with the country’s biggest oligarchs and the alleged drug lords — wealth he stands to lose should the next president refuse to protect him. Who could better protect him than a daughter as president? Remember, two presidents of the Philippines were jailed already —  Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Joseph Estrada and a third, Marcos Sr., his idol, was literally chased out of the presidential palace (and saved by the U.S. government). Another president cannot risk this possibility after his term.

This is Philippine reality politics. It never fails to shock and awe, to borrow a phrase from the Bush II era.