PH May 2022 Elections: Fresh findings of ‘fraud’

PH May 2022 Elections: Fresh findings of ‘fraud’

The TNTrio: from left, Franklin Ysaac (former president, Financial Executives Institute), Eliseo Rio, Jr. (retired general and former Undersecretary, Department of Information and Communications Technology) and Augusto Lagman (former president, NAMFREL (National Movement for Free Elections) and former Comelec Commissioner.

By Eliseo Rio Jr
Facebook post

Nov. 1, 2022

It is NOW clear that the results of the COMELEC Transparency Server controlled by the PPCRV were extremely DUBIOUS. We questioned its credibility a few days after the May 9, 2022 election as statistically, mathematically and logically HIGHLY IMPROBABLE if not IMPOSSIBLE!

We have two reasons to issue that statement then. First, it is unbelievable that the result shown to the public in its 8:02pm update was a PEAK count of 20M+ votes, just an hour after the voting closed at 7pm. In that hour, the COMELEC General Instructions required the printing of 8 copies of the precinct’s Election Result (ER), which takes at least 30 minutes, before the ER can be transmitted by the Vote Counting Machine (VCM). The earliest transmIssions from the VCMs would occur by 7:30pm. It is hard to believe that between 7:30pm to 8pm, the Transparency Server would have counted 20M+ votes and in the following hour from 8pm to 9pm, when more VCMs should be ready to transmit because the printing requirement would have been done, only 13.2M+ votes were counted. Second reason is that in EVERY UPDATE of the Transparency Server after 8:02pm, there appeared an uncanny constant vote ratio for all candidates for President and VP that hardly changed in a four-day counting period.

PPCRV was quick to defend the results of Transparency Server by saying that VCM transmissions were much faster because we have now three telcos available and that the constant vote ratio can be explained by the Law of Large Numbers, using as basis the 20M+ votes counted in the first hour.

Still not satisfied with this explanation from PPCRV, we wrote COMELEC on July 15, 2022, requesting proof by means of transmission logs that enough VCMs actually transmitted their ERs to account for the 20M+ votes shown in the Transparency Server at 8:02pm. We were answered by COMELEC on August 15, 2022 to get the data we are asking for from the Joint Congressional Oversight Committee on the Automated Election System (JCOC-AES) and the COMELEC Advisory Council (CAC). We wrote these two agencies as advised but until now we have not gotten any answer.

On October 18, 2022, the Ateneo School of Government organized a Forum where COMELEC Chairperson George Garcia was the Guest of Honor. In a presentation of COMELEC in that Forum, a graph on the Accumulated VCM Transmissions was shown. We immediately noticed in that graph that VCM transmissions PEAKED TWO hours after transmissions started, in stark contrast with the Transparency Server’s count that PEAKED ONE hour after voting closed. Further analysis showed that at 8:02pm where the Transparency Server showed a count of 20M+ votes, the VCM transmissions on that same time can account for only 12M+ votes.

So as per official records of COMELEC’s VCM Transmission logs as shown in the October 18 Forum, THE 20M+ MILLION VOTES SHOWN BY THE TRANSPARENCY SERVER AT 8:02PM are QUESTIONABLE. And since that 20M+ votes was used as the basis of the Law of Large Numbers to explain the suspicious constant vote ratios, THE WHOLE RESULTS of the Transparency Server are DISPUTABLE. It would seem that the Transparency Server was used to condition the minds of the public to expect the official results of the 2022 election. THIS CAN ONLY MEAN THAT THE 2022 ELECTION MAY HAD BEEN RIGGED.

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REPLY

By Pablo Manalastas
Facebook post

Nov. 4, 2022

In the November 2, 2022 post of Engr. Eliseo Rio Jr., he claimed several errors in the data of Election 2022, that may actually be used to argue that cheating actually happened. I would like to comment on two of these claims.

(1) He stated that “It is NOW clear that the results of the COMELEC Transparency Server controlled by the PPCRV were extremely DUBIOUS.”

I would like to correct that the Transparency Server is not controlled by the PPCRV, but by Comelec. Comelec just shares transmitted ER data that are received by the Transparency Server with PPCRV, KBP, NAMFREL, and the major political parties. It just looks like PPCRV “controls” the transparency server, because they have the most number of volunteer personnel at the venue at UST. Still Comelec has technical personnel who man the Transparency Server and restricts access to data to only those entities that have been given the right to receive ER data.
(2) Engr. Rio continues and states that, “Further analysis showed that at 8:02pm where the Transparency Server showed a count of 20M+ votes, the VCM transmissions on that same time can account for only 12M+ votes.”

This claim that “VCM transmissions on that same time can account for only 12M+ votes” is based on Engr. Rio’s educated estimate of transmitted data, and is not an actual count of votes obtained from actual transmissions. Such claim based on educated guess work can not be validly used to prove that cheating actually happened.

The proper way to check if the 20M+ votes on the first hour after polls closed is not the result of cheating, is to match the printed copy of the ER that comes directly from the precinct, with the softcopy of the ER transmitted directly to the Transparency Server. This is precisely what PPCRV has heroically done over the past several elections, using hundreds of unpaid volunteers, so that they can prove to everyone, with the blessings of the Holy Roman Catholic Church, which we all know is heavily pro-Leni in the 2022 elections, that there is no cheating during transmission of ER from the precincts to the Transparency Server. This is the reason Bishop Socrates Villegas cried on discovering that in the PPCRV reconciliation, Candidate Leni lost by a big humiliating margin.

When a candidate that we do not like wins by such convincing margin, the first thing we should do is not to claim that cheating happened, but to examine ourselves to find out what we did wrong, why we did not listen to the silent clamor of the less privileged classes in our society. The great majority, the classes D&E, and portions of classes ABC who listen to D&E, have spoken. Isn’t it right that we respect their decision?